Background
Traditionally incident trends at the MFB have been mapped using a pre-existing unit of analysis (grids, locality boundaries, census districts, etc.). These units of analysis provide an arbitrary division of the landscape not always suitable for mapping shifts in incident distribution.

Objectives
The objective of the project is to identify localised Areas of Increased Incident Activity to investigate the factors driving these increases.

Methods
A surface representing the average frequency of incidents over a ten year period is created. A comparison is made between the most recent call data and the ten year average. From this comparison Areas of Increased Incident Activity are identified based on particular criteria. Interrogation of these areas includes: 1. Examining incident type to identify trends and patterns. 2. Cross examining the data against various other data sources (e.g. demographics, infrastructure, vegetation) to identify potential causation. 3. Collaborating with operational personnel to gain expertise and local knowledge into what may be driving these changes and potential mitigation strategies.

Findings
Initial results indicate significant localized shifts in the geographic distribution of incidents.

Conclusions
This methodology identifies emerging incident trends. The results of the analysis will be used to inform targeted mitigation efforts which could include educative programs, resource allocation and suspicious fire investigation. This project will ensure MFB can identify emerging localized trends and develop strategic responses to them.