Exploring the spatial, temporal and localised context of bushfire fatalities and house loss: towards a new National Fire Danger Rating System — ASN Events

Exploring the spatial, temporal and localised context of bushfire fatalities and house loss: towards a new National Fire Danger Rating System (5354)

Raphaele Blanchi 1 2 , Justin Leonard 1 2 , Katharine Haynes 3 , Kimberley Opie 4 , Melissa James 1 , Felipe Dimer de Oliveira 3 , Musa Kilinc 5 , Rob van den Honert 3
  1. CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Highett, Australia
  2. Bushfire CRC, Melbourne, Vic, Australia
  3. Risk Frontiers, Macquarie University, North Ryde, Australia
  4. CSIRO Land and Water, Melbourne, Australia
  5. Monash University, Melbourne, Aus

This paper describes the development and analysis of a dataset containing bushfire related life loss and house loss in Australia over the past 110 years (1901-2011), building upon the dataset developed by Haynes (2010). Over this time period 260 bushfires have been associated with a total of 825 known fatalities, 733 civilians and 92 firefighters. This dataset was developed to provide a firm evidence base from which an Australian National fire danger rating system can be developed. It includes spatial, temporal and localised context in which the fatalities have occurred.

The analysis has focused on the characterisation of the relationship between fatal exposure location, fire weather conditions (using the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) and its individual components), proximity to fuel, and individual activity and decision making leading up to the death. The statistical analysis sought to quantify minimum thresholds, potential surrogate qualifiers, and examine the type and prevalence of activities of the fatalities prior to death in relation to their environmental circumstances (weather conditions, proximity to fuel).

The highlights of the analysis demonstrate that:

·   The losses are dominated by a small number of large scale disasters that occurred under very severe weather conditions.

·   Fire weather and proximity to forest influence the potential for fatalities to occur.

·   Fatalities within structures represent over 75% of all fatalities under very severe conditions (FFDI value of 100). These are associated with people dying while attempting to shelter, mainly in their place of residence. Conversely lower values of FFDI are associated with people caught outside who are engaged in defending.

·   Male and female civilian fatalities within structures were evenly represented, while male fatalities out in the open were approximately 3 times greater.

·   Forty-one percent of fatalities within a structure died in rooms with reduced visibility to the outside.

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