Victoria has experienced significant, disruptive emergencies in recent years. The emergency management sector is facing greater pressure to meet increased community expectations. To anticipate and better understand future challenges, the Victorian Fire Services Commissioner has embarked on a comprehensive program of research to anticipate and understand changing risk across Victoria. This program will provide the evidence base for the sector to develop, deliver and support emergency management services to the community. The 2021 Research Program provides a foundation for the Victorian emergency management sector and emergency service organisations to understand, and work toward, managing future challenges together. The research program is designed to identify strategic challenges; providing evidence to effectively respond to changing communities. The research program comprises a comprehensive environmental scan of the likely changes across the State in the year 2021, drawing out implications of identified trends and changes for emergency management and emergency services organisations. The program is made up of three projects that will explore (among other aspects) key social, economic and environmental changes in across Victorian communities. This presentation will report key findings of this research, firstly exploring anticipated trends across the State. Some of the projected changes discussed include demographics (population composition, growth and transfer), land use (farming types, population density) and impacts on the natural environment (more frequent and severe hazards, environmental degradation). The presentation will analyse the implications of identified changes for emergency management and emergency management organisations in the year 2021. The presentation will conclude by outlining pathways for adaptation and reform, including (but not limited to) changes in community engagement, fire management planning and supporting policy.